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A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."